BOKRECENSION

 

 

"Post Carbon Reader", Heinberg/Lerch

"Post Carbon Reader" är utgiven år 2010, omfattar 500 sidor och är på engelska. Den finns på AdLibris, där den kostar bara 173 kr.

Boken har Richard Heinberg och Daniel Lerch som redaktörer och består av 34 olika uppsatser, med ungefär lika många författare.  Envar får alltså fokusera på just det som han eller hon har som specialitet.  Bladn de mer kända namnen återfinns William E. Rees, Richard Douthwaite, Chris Martenson och Rob Hopkins.

Resultatet blir en mycket koncis, faktaspäckad och klargörande bok, värd att sätta högt på inköpslistan! Den kunde förtjäna en översättning till svenska.

Boken betar systematiskt av området för område, med denna kapitelindelning:

1. Grundläggande begrepp

2. Klimat

3. Vatten

4. Biologisk mångfald

5. Mat

6. Befolkning

7. Kultur och beteende

8. Energi

9. Ekonomi

10. Städer och förorter

11. Transporter

12. Avfall

13. Hälsa

14. Utbildning

15. Byggande av resilience

16. Uppfordran till aktion

Begreppet "resilience" är centralt, men svårt att med ett ord översätta till svenska. Det blir ungefär elasticitet, spänstighet, icke-sårbarhet:

Chris Martenson:

"We are more resilient when we have multiple sources and systems to supply a needed item, rather than being dependent on a single source. We are more resilient when we have a strong local community with deep connections. We are mroe resilient when we are in control of how our needs are met and when we can do things for ourselves.

We are more resilient if we can source water from three locations...

We are more resilient when our home can be heated by multiple sources and systems,.."

Uppsats nummer 19, av Tom Whipple - "Peak Oil and the Great Recession" - känns särskilt aktuell:

"This chapter explores the relationship - as it is understood thus far - between the peaking of oil production, which started around 2005, and the current global recession, which officially started in late 2007."

"... world production - which has been growing steadily for nearly 150 years - has flattened out in the vicinity of ... 86 million bpd, suggesting to many that all-time-peak-oil production has already occured."

"Corporate loobying and public realations became industries unto themslves, and corporate political contributions skyrrocketed. Today the power of very weel-financed 'special interests' to influence the political response to major issues... is a well-established part of the American political scene."

"By 2007-2008 it was obvious that a major economic crisis was under way, with falling real estate values, increasing underemployment, sagging economies, and unstable, overleveraged financial markets.... the role of oil in deepening and spreading the global recession has only recently begun to be appreciated."

"Oil, which was trading for as low as $ 20 a barrel in 2002, reached $ 70 a barrel in 2006, increased to $ 80 a barrel in late 2007, and topped $ 100 at the beginning of 2008."

"The $ 60-per-barrel increase in oil prices between 2002 and late 2007 meant that $ 1.2 billion additional each day - or $ 36 each month - was being spent in the United States solely to pay for the increased cost of oil.

The year 2008 will be remembered as a major turning point in industrial history, for it was the first year when the world got a taste of the unpredictable price spikes that come from inadequate oil supplies."

"Two major lessons from the first half of 2008 were that oil prices can indeed increase rapidly to unanticipated levels and that very high prices will cause serious economic damage in short order."

"Most new oil production is now coming from deep-water wells or deposits of heavy oil in Canada and Venezuela, which require very large investments to exploit."

"...new oil resources are becoming so expensive to find - and new oil production is becoming so expensive to develop - that it will take relatively high prices to keep exploration and new production projects viable."

"It is unlikely that there will ever be an economic recovery in the conventional sense; the economic downturn is likely to continue in one form or another for many years."

Sammanfattningsvis: bakom recessionen som kom kring år 2008 låg kraftigt höjda oljepriser. Det blir därför osannolikt att en återhämtning kommer att ske till något vi varit vana vid.

 

 

 

Jan Milld

oktober 2011