"Future
Scenarios" av David Holmgren
"Future
Scenarios " av David Holmgren
är utgiven år 2009, omfattar 120 sidor
och är på engelska. Den finns på AdLibris,
där den kostar bara 94 kr.
Det
är alltså en liten bok, men den är koncis och klar.
David Holmgren vet vad han talar om, är ju en auktoritet inom
permakultur.
Som
framgår av framsidan finns två styrande variabler:
A.
Peak Oil och den tilltagande energibristen
B.
Klimatförändringar till följd av miljöutsläpp.
Holmgren
ser fyra möjliga framtider: teknikexplosion, teknikstabilitet,
energinedgång och kollaps.
1.
Teknikexplosion
Förutsätter
att nya fantastiska energikällor:
"Technoexplosion
depends on new, large, and concentrated energy sources that will allow
the continued growth in material wealth and human power over environmental
constraints as well as population growth. This scenario is generally
associated with space travel and colonizing other planets."
2.
Teknikstabilitet
Förutsätter
en omfattande satsning på förnybar energi och en viss -
mjuk - nedgång i energianvändning:
"While
this clearly involves massive change in almost all aspects of society,
the implication is that once sustainable systems are in place, a steady-state
sustainable society with much less change will prevail. Photovoltaic
technology directly capturing solar energy is a suitable icon or symbol
of this scenario."
3.
Energinedgång
Förutsätter
en minskning av ekonomisk aktivitet, komplexitet och befolkningsmängd:
"This
suggests a ruralization of settlement and economy, with less consumption
of energy and resources and a progressive decline in human populations."
4.
Kollaps
Innebär
att snabbt sammanbrott av industrisamhället, kanske även
en utplåning av både människan och många andra
arter:
"It
would inevitably involve a major 'die-off' of human population and
a loss of the knowledge and infrastructure necessary for industrial
civilization, if not more severe scenarios including human extinction
and the loss of much of the planets biodiversity."
David
Holmgren skissar på fyra möjliga framtidsscenarior utifrån
utvecklingen beträffande energitillgång och klimatförändring:
A.
Brown Tech - Top-down Constriction
B.
Green Tech - Distributed Powerdown
C.
Earth Steward - Bottom-Up Rebuild
D.
Lifeboats - Civilization Triage
A.
Brown Tech
Långsam
energinedgång, allvarliga klimatförändringar.
B.
Green Tech
Långsam
energinedgång, milda klimatförändringar:
"The
relatively benign climate allows a resurgence of rural and regional
economies on the back of sustained and growing prices for all natural
commodities including feedstock and biofuels."
C.
Earth Steward
Snabb
energinedgång, milda klimatförändringar:
"This
economic collapse and these political stresses, more than the actual
shortage of resources, prevents the development of more expensive
and large-scale nonrenewable resources that characterize the brown-tech
scenrio or the renewable resources and infrastructure of the green-tech.
International and national communications networks break down.
Electricity
grids become nonfuntional as cost and availability of fuels and spare
parts reduce production, and lack of paying businesses and customers
reduce revenues."
Detta
scenario innefattar också många andra otrevligheter, som
övergivande av land och befolkningsomflyttningar, ransoneringar,
svart marknad och matupplopp. Ökad brottslgihet, undernäring,
sjuklighet och höga dödstal. Kollaps för skattebasen
och svårghet att hålla igång infrastrukturer.
Men
där finns även möjligheter:
"Organic
and small farmers, close to markets and able to make use of labor
and animal power, thrive... An explosion of home businesses based
on building and equipment retrofit, maintenance,.."
D.
Lifeboats
Snabb
energinedgång, allvarliga klimatförändringar:
Här
blir det de som kan jaga och bo i vildmarken som kan klara sig,och
de som kan tillverka egna vapen.
De
fyra framtidsscenariorna är främst applicerbara på
olika nivåer, enligt denna skiss:
Ytterligare
citat:
"While
the energy crisis of the 1970s illustrated the vulnerability of industrial
society to oil shortage, the oil glut and low prices of the 1980s,
combined with a barrage of misinformation, saw these ideas lose favor."
"...the
increasingly sedentary lifestyle created by the computer and other
innovation is reguiring escalating expenditure in the health care
sysem and in the health and fitness industry to compensate for lifestyles
shat are compatible with human biology."
"Today
Cubans have life expectancy and other indices of development comparable
with the United States while using one-seventh the energy and resources."
"...debunkting
of peak oil that continues in policy circles and the media. The steady
climb in prices for eight years should have been enough to lift production
it that were possible."
"Whatever
happens in the future, the fundamental cause
of this latest economic recession is the same as four of the last
five global recessions: a sudden rise in oil
prices. As always, energy fuels the economy while financial
activity increasingly represents litte more than steam, smoke, froth,
and bubble which confuses the picture."
"Flow
of energy from more expensive sources such as tar sands, deep-ocean
oil, gas-to-liquids, and coal-to-liquids slow the decline in fuels
from crude oil."
"...my
purpose ws to empower those committed to ecological values and social
justice to be effective in their quest to create the world we want,
rather than just resist the world we dont want... during periods of
ecological chaos small groups of people have been instrumental in
those transitions."
Jan
Milld
oktober
2011